Crypto Update: It’s Going to Zero
January 13, 2022
It’s going to Zero!
The markets have been fearful — extremely fearful — for more than a month. Clearly, zero is right around the corner.
Now, all jokes aside, there’s definitely been a slump where there was an expected pump, perhaps compounding the negative sentiment in, what one imagines, newish retail investors. Newbies.
Apparently, the market-masses got in their heads that Quarter4 2021 was suppose to be bullish… for some reason. Turns out, mostly because everybody wanted it to be. And partly because it was bullish in the past Quarter4's or something.
Once again, humanity gets a consequential lesson in relying on short-term public sentiment and past performance as indicators of the future: It’s not good enough.
Especially for something as volatile as Crypto. Now we find ourselves, not only in a dip, but also in the pits of disappointment due to a failed short-term forecast.
Alas, mass-market sentiment relies on short-term indicators and short-term memory. Mass market sentiment is sometimes self-fulfilling, certainly making this bounce-back more delayed and painful than it really needs to be. Looking at you, leveraged shorts…
Unless everybody starts to take a macro peak at the asset they have their hands on, short-term memory will continue to dictate public sentiment. In reality, an advanced investor can do away with paying any attention to public sentiment. Leave the trading to the gamblers.
Though bitcoin and the crypto market is presently bearish, the present is just a very tiny phase in a massive timeline full of parabolas and accumulation, in differing magnitudes.
We are still clearly, overall bullish. And it’ll take a lot more than public sentiment and failed lofty predications to change that.
Zooming out to form a big picture, it’s hard to imagine that the market sentiment could really be in extreme fear.
Truly, are the majority of market participants spending their days fearful, uncertain, and doubtful, mouse hovering above the sell-order button on Coinbase? Is the overall time-preference of the average degen really so high?
Now that the market is made up of the combination of new money and new leveraged traders these dips seem to cause an illusionary negative sentiment, making it difficult to remember that the price trajectory is still heading towards the same direction as it always been — up.
This dip is not unique, whatsoever. It doesn’t indicate anything.
In fact, we’ve survived worst dips and longer bear-markets. Although past performance does not predict future outcomes, observing the Lindy Effect, this kind of macro track record puts the odds well in the favor of the bulls.
Experienced, advanced investors are almost certain we’ll continue the macro trend as shown above…
Although it’s not the ability to make inferences about a log chart that gives them this confidence, but rather the ability to look past price when it comes to indicators.
For indicators, they look at fundamentals. Here are a few.
Popular Culture:
In this case, very popular culture.
In Q3 2021, The Joe Rogan Experience got more views than almost the next top 4 media programs combined.
“I have a lot of hope for cryptocurrencies…”
-Joe Rogan
Forget short-term indicators like price, one should be bullish simply because of blue-chip crypto endorsements made on huge platforms such as the one hosted by Mr. Rogan, exposing millions to the space.
Innovation
Instead of the price charts, another better indicator is innovation. Namely, the observed reallocation of resources to innovate in crypto.
Whether it’s for roles in sales, philosophy, education, or tech — crypto is soaking up all the talent.
Companies are forming crypto department —and companies already with crypto departments are seeing them get most of the attention. Jack Dorsey’s Square became Block late last year, and yesterday, Cashapp’s integration with the Lightning network means 36 million users have easy access to bitcoin transactions.
Furthermore, this statistic from Visa mentions that a quarter of small businesses are interested in taking crypto for payments in 2022. As exposure and innovation rise, adoption will follow along.
Growth in Subsidiary Industries
Crypto short-term price indicators are taking a momentary dump, but all other indicators remain extremely bullish.
Including the continual crypto adoption by other industries, notably the gaming industry. Many crypto gaming ecosystems saw astounding growth in 2021, and doesn’t look like it’s going to stop in 2022.
A huge milestone, The Meta Tournament is a week away — the first and therefore largest crypto gaming tournament ever — hosted by Twitch in partnership with Neo Tokyo which is the pet metaverse project of our favorite degen influencer Alex Becker.
Wrapping Up
Hopefully this update was hopium enough for you to get through another day of hodling, away from the sell-order buttons on your favorite exchanges.
If you’re looking for a consistent dose of said hopium please follow my medium publication and subscribe to my YouTube channel!
